* Updated Predictions to include Judas and the Black Messiah
The Blog Complainer has returned with his annual Oscars Prediction post. I’ve never before released my predictions so close to the actual ceremony and it’s not just because of my upcoming book. It was actually because back in March when the nominations were first announced, I hadn’t seen most of these movies and there was no chance I could reach my usual mandate on time. I’m catching up with what I can, but as with every award season, some of the movies are literally impossible for me to see right now so the information below only reflects those that I have seen at the time of releasing this post.
Just in case you want to check out the guide I’m using for this post here’s the link to the official 2021 Oscar nomination page.
Best Picture: I’ve embarrassingly only seen 6 out of 8, which is out of my control as all of this is in the cinemas/distributors court. Minari, a foreign language movie, I had no hope of ever seeing at the cinema. Judas and the Black Messiah, I luckily saw the trailer at the cinema, but then they annoyingly never showed the movie. (This happens a lot where I live.) My only hope of seeing these movies this month would be if one of them wins Best Picture, prompting a special release as with previous Oscar winners, Parasite and Green Book.
Out of what I’ve seen, if I had to pick a winner I would go for Sound of Metal or The Father. We already know why Sound of Metal is awesome because it was featured in this year’s Crammys. The Father unfortunately missed the quota, but I’ll definitely be adding it next year as it’s fantastic at absolutely crushing you, both physically and emotionally.
What the Oscars might pick is a whole other story, but as long as it isn’t Mank or Nomadland I’m happy. Mank, as I’ve expressed in past posts, is one of Fincher’s weaker entries and I’d prefer this not to be the one that gets him Best Picture. I am worried Mank will win as it’s carrying the most nominations this year, but then again Joker held that title last year and in the end it only won two awards. The other movie I’d prefer not to win is Nomadland because I was so disappointed that no one told me how boring this movie was. Overall it’s a pretty good movie, but it’s the only Best Picture nominee that left me pondering whether my time would be better spent having a nap!
Let’s look at acting while also darting around what I haven’t seen.
Best Actor: That should go to Riz Ahmed or Anthony Hopkins, either one will be fine with me. Who will probably win is Chadwick Boseman, as it’s a posthumous nomination plus I don’t think he’s ever been nominated for an Oscar before, so his chances are stronger.
Best Supporting Actor: I don’t have any strong opinions on this one as the actors in the movies I have seen were just passable. If I had to choose I would pick either of the two actors from Judas and the Black Messiah. Yes, I know I hadn’t seen this movie, but I feel confident enough that they’re better than the guys I have seen!*
* I’ve seen the movie now and I can confirm I was just in making that bold prediction, however now I’m placing all my bets on Daniel Kaluuya, as I believe it’s his time!
Best Actress: Carey Mulligan for the win! That or Vanessa Kirby for her role in that movie with the most uncomfortable first half hour of last year.
Best Supporting Actress: Tough one as I’m pretty open to any one of these women winning. While I’d love to see Olivia Coleman win another Oscar, I’m unfortunately going to have to root for the underdog, Glenn Close, for her role in that average hillbilly movie only because this is the most amusing and peculiar nomination in this whole award show, given that she was nominated for a Razzie for this same role.
Best Animated Film: Again I’d shamefully only seen the Pixar nominees when this year’s nominees were first announced. Not that it really matters because we all know Soul is going to win. Even if I didn’t love Soul, it’s still going to win. If this was the year where the Academy was going to choose a more daring nominee, I would be thrilled to see Wolfwalkers win. A hand drawn animated movie hasn’t won an Oscar since Spirited Away back in 2003, so that would be my other choice. If it wins then there will be an actual reason to keep my subscription for Apple TV Plus, the most redundant streaming service on the planet.
I’m going to start wrapping up this post now as I don’t have too much of an opinion on the other categories. This is either because I hadn’t seen the majority of the nominees or I doubt people would want to see my thoughts on such a minor category. In that case I’ll just do what I did last year and list off some of the other categories, which will include my pick and what the Oscars might pick.
Stay tuned for next week when we’ll discuss the winners of this year’s Oscars, along with some more exciting movie reviews coming to this site. I have been The Blog Complainer, signing out.
Best Director
My Choice: Emerald Femmell – Promising Young Woman
Oscars’ Choice: Chloe Zhao – Nomadland
Adapted Screenplay
My Choice: Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller – The Father
Oscars’ Choice: Sacha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Dan Swimer, Peter Baynham, Erica Rivinoja, Dan Mazer, Jena Friedman & Lee Kern – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Original Screenplay
My Choice: Darius Marder & Abraham Marder – Sound of Metal
Oscars’ Choice: Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7
Cinematography
Mine & Oscars’ Choice: Joshua James Richards – Nomadland
* My Choice: Sean Bobbit – Judas and the Black Messiah
Original Score
My Choice: Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross and Jon Batiste – Soul
Oscars’ Choice: (Not Entirely Sure)
Production Design
My Choice: The Father
Oscars’ Choice: Mank
Sound Design
My Choice: Sound of Metal
Oscars’ Choice: I don’t know, one of the Tom Hanks movies.
Visual Effects
Mine & Oscars’ Choice: Tenet
That’s a Wrap Folks!
