It’s that time of year again where I share my thoughts on the Oscar nominations. We’re not messing about so let’s begin with…
Expecting the Expected
I mentioned in the first line of my Jojo Rabbit review that this year’s nominations weren’t that surprising and everyone getting fed up with what was left out is pretty much the norm at this point. Why do I feel this way, well…
- Every year they leave out at least five films that are better than the ones they pick.
- Every year the Academy is called out for being made up of old out of touch white guys.
- Every year the nominations are more predictable because over 75% are also in the BAFTAs and The Golden Globes.
The only surprise I ever get from this show is when movies like The Lighthouse and Knives Out only get nominated for one category. ‘Alright, you guys can be slotted in for the awards that only film buffs care about, while real movies like Joker and Ford v Ferrari deserve the Best Picture spot.‘
So what I was thinking of doing for this year’s predictions is I’ll look at each category, pick my winner and predict their winner. The big twist afterwards is what my 2020 Oscar nominees for that category would be. Don’t worry we’re not doing every category as I understand how boring that would be for you.
We’ll start with the supporting actor categories. I should note, if I don’t mention some roles that’s because I haven’t seen the movie.
My Pick: Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit: One of the best of the whole year.
Oscars Pick: Laura Dern – Marriage Story: Every other award show is choosing her.
Now for the fun part. I like to envision that instead of five actor slots we have eight. I’m removing Margot Robbie and Florence Pugh and replacing them with Jennifer Lopez – Hustlers and Cho Yeo-Jeong – Parasite. Joining them will be Zhao Shuzen – The Farewell, Jamie Lee Curtis – Knives Out and Jennifer Hudson – Cats because I said I want the Oscars to be a little unpredictable and she was pretty good.
My Pick: Joe Pesci – The Irishman: He disappeared for 20 years, comes back and gives the best performance of his whole career.
Oscars Pick: Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood: It’s Brad Pitt and all the other shows are picking him too.
Anthony Hopkins is getting the boot and in his place Wesley Snipes – Dolemite is My Name. Joining him will be Choi Woo-Shik – Parasite, Jamie Bell – Rocketman, Sam Rockwell – Jojo Rabbit and Willem Dafoe – The Lighthouse. I haven’t seen The Lighthouse, but I bet he’s great and I wanted to be more generous than the actual Oscars.
I have an interesting take on this category as I feel pretty confident that Toy Story 4/Pixar will not win this year. It’s no secret the animation category is based on “which movie can my kid drag me to watch“, which explains why anime and foreign films never stand a chance. So that’s why I feel Klaus will win as it is aimed at kids, it’s on Netflix, and it’s set at Christmas.
Although in my perfect world Dreamworks and Pixar are out and in their place we have my favourite animated movie of the year – Invader Zim: Enter the Florpus and the movie which I regret missing, but I hear is great anyway – Weathering With You.
My Pick: Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story: Why not let her win both actress awards?
Oscars Pick: Renee Zellweger – Judy: Saoirse was a close second, but again this is the popular pick.
To be honest this is a pretty good selection here, but still I’m booting out Charlize Theron. Sorry, but this spot now belongs to Ana De Armas – Knives Out. After that we add what’s easily the biggest snub of the year Lupita Nyong’o – Little Monsters, plus Lupita Nyong’o playing her doppelganger in Us! Lastly Constance Wu – Hustlers and surprise, Florence Pugh – Midsommar because this is the spot she rightfully derserves.
Mine and Oscars Pick: Adam Driver – Marriage Story: I feel pretty confident with this choice and he’s been a favourite at other shows.
For lead actor we will be removing Leonardo DiCaprio and Jonathan Pryce. In their place we have Taron Edgerton – Rocketman and Eddie Murphy – Dolemite is My Name!! After that we have the criminally forgotten Robert de Niro – The Irishman, Daniel Craig – Knives Out and, the best for last, Adam Sandler – Uncut Gems. Again I haven’t seen the movie, but I’m still disappointed that I won’t see him attend the Oscars. Oh well in my made-up version he does!
My Pick: Bong Joon Ho – Parasite: This was an easy choice as it’s one of the most masterfully crafted movies of this lot.
Oscars Pick: Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood: He has never won in this category before so it’s a pretty good bet.
We’re going to be booting out Todd Philips and in his place we’re bringing in four female directors. First up Greta Gerwig – Little Women, Lorene Scafaria – Hustlers, Lulu Wang – The Farewell and Celine Sciamma – Portrait of a Lady on Fire.
To be perfectly honest I’m not going to change anything as I’m actually fine with this line-up. Sure it would have been nice if Knives Out or Dolemite is My Name were nominated, but it’s fine, at least it’s not as bad as last years nominees. I’m just quickly going to rank these movies leading up to my pick and ending it with theirs.
Ford v Ferrari and Little Women, good crowd pleasers and if they win I won’t be mad nor disappointed as it will be an improvement over last year.
After that Joker and 1917 are two really solid films, but not Best Picture worthy and they should get other awards instead.
The Irishman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Jojo Rabbit are all great movies and if any of them win Best Picture I will be satisfied although they are not quite there for me as each film I have minor nitpicks with and the directors for these movies have made better movies before this.
Marriage Story is my favourite movie of the year, but I’m giving the edge over to Parasite, for two reasons. It is the best made film out of this whole lot and I think it will have a bigger impact on film as a whole, which at the end of the day is what winning Best Picture should mean. Green Book proved otherwise.
Parasite should win, but it won’t because it’s been nominated for Best Foreign Language film and it will get that instead. I feel Joker has a strong chance with the insane amount of nominations it has, but my guess is Once Upon a Time in Hollywood will win because it’s old Hollywood and Tarantino hasn’t won before, yeah it’s going to win!
That’s my thoughts on this years Oscar noms. I’ll sure as hell be watching the show to see if it’s somehow as embarrassing as last year. The rest of this post will be dedicated to my picks for the other categories that I don’t have much to say on. Feel free to leave your thoughts on this year’s Oscars in the comments. Catch you again when the winners are announced and until then I have been The Blog Complainer, signing out.
Mine & The Oscars Pick: Roger Deakins – 1917
My Pick: Mayes C. Rubeo – Jojo Rabbit
Oscars Pick: Jacqueline Durran – Little Women
Hair & Make-up
My Pick: Naomi Donne, Tristan Versluis and Rebecca Cole – 1917
Oscars Pick: Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan and Vivian Baker – Bombshell
My Pick: Alexandre Desplat – Little Women
Oscars Pick: Hildur Guðnadóttir – Joker
My Pick:“(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again”: Music by Elton John, Lyrics by Bernie Taupin – Rocketman
Oscars Pick: “Into The Unknown”: Music and Lyrics by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez – Frozen II (To make up for snubbing it in the animated category.)
My Pick: Dennis Gassner; Set Decoration: Lee Sandales – 1917
Oscars Pick: Barbara Ling & Set Decorator Nancy Haigh – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
My Pick: Pablo Helman, Leandro Estebecorena, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser and Stephane Grabli – The Irishman
Oscars Pick: Robert Legato, Adam Valdez, Andrew R. Jones and Elliot Newman – The Lion King (2019)
My Pick: Steven Zaillian – The Irishman
Oscars Pick: Todd Phillips & Scott Silver – Joker
My Pick: Rian Johnson – Knives Out (It deserves something!)
Oscars Pick: Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
That’s all folks!
This Post Has 2 Comments
Solid picks, hope you’re right on most of these. However, I think you’re sleeping on the popes a bit and I got a wicked hunch that Jonathan Pryce is going to win best actor.
Dang, seeing all these Oscar predictions is tempting me, I’m sick of “the anibloggers” having all the fun. Maybe I’ll gather a few amateur film blogs and give $5 to whoever has the best success in their Oscar predictions. Not a lot but probably more than you’re Oscar opinions are making now right?
I don’t dislike Two Popes and Jonathan Pryce was the best part of that film. He might win, but I feel pretty confident Adam Driver will take the gold and if not him then it will go to Joaquin Phoenix.
5 bucks for the most accurate Oscars Predictions. Sure I’m up for that. 😉